The AAP: An appraisal

The birth and the rise of the Aam Aadmi party has been a truly remarkable series of events in India’s recent history, events that had the potential to  rekindle a cynic’s faith in the beneficial - self regulating and self correcting - aspects of a democracy. It was a wave of popular discontent, hope and idealism facing a shameless, high-handed, thoroughly and brazenly corrupt Congress establishment drunk with power. The Congress, like a drunkard at the peak of an alcohol fueled delusion of power and invincibility was knocked out cold by a tight slap of public anger in the Delhi assembly elections.

The assembly election results were a culmination of an anti graft movement led by Anna Hajare, Swami Ramdev, Arvind Kejriwal along with several other civil society luminaries. The qualitative and quantitive characteristics of the AAP victory were astonishing. Maybe better than the AAP leaders estimated, and perhaps wanted.

The AAP was still more of a loose popular movement manned by volunteers than an organized political party, lacking either a dedicated cadre or a cultivated social/caste based captive constituency. So a flashy campaign of sensational pronouncements at regular intervals which ensured constant media coverage was their only option, one which they used cleverly and effectively. They had one thing that no other player in the arena had. They were a group of untainted, unblemished people who were not politicians, yet.

Much has changed since. The victory and power they have surrendered, perhaps in pursuit of a greater goal. A substantial portion of the idealism they generated has soured into cynicism, even hate. To their credit, the act of surrendering power for an avowedly idealistic cause is almost unprecedented in India. Has anyone really done that? Would anyone else do it in the future? Even if it was planned and knowingly done, can anyone contemplate any other chief minister with a comfortable working majority doing that in present day India? They definitely deserve praise for the simple reason of doing something nobody else in the political space would do, for most them power is the ultimate goal, the end in itself. To put things in perspective, Kalyan Singh and Mayawati played musical chairs with the chief minister’s chair and Lalu Prasad Yadav installed his illustrious wife as the chief minister to run the show from inside prison. The BJP virtually abandoned the core agenda of constructing a grand Ram Mandir on the Ramjanmabhoomi in Ayodhya for retaining power.

Some would argue, not without reason, that they had no way of fulfilling the grand promises they made and all the established political class had virtually conspired to allow the AAP to run out of its self righteous steam and fail. The AAP then converted this real compulsion into a springboard for its national ambitions. For without exponential growth there was the danger of implosion and extinction, a fate of many idealistic movements, big and small, around the world. But they did deliver on some of the campaign promises and there were reports of increased bureaucratic efficiency and less bribe taking, which are wondrous things of poetic imagination in India.

The problem with these kinds of movements is that such an unsupervised growth lets all kinds of people in, many of who simply are self serving and want to ride the wave and then there are those who have shady ideological motives despite the party itself professing no isms, but a singular commitment to eradicate corruption. It happened with the Janata Party and even with the BJP. These people either desert ship when the chips are down or worse hasten the downfall.

Approaching Lok Sabha elections and the consequent ratcheting up of the campaign has effected a sinister transformation in the the AAP. It is almost a forgone conclusion that the Congress party and its allies will suffer a catastrophic meltdown. In such a scenario the "minority" tactical vote is up for grabs for any formation that is capable and willing to take on the BJP and Modi frontally and aggressively, nationwide. Hence "secularism" is now a bigger concern than corruption. The logic of not going after the Congress is that it has already been stripped naked of almost all of its electoral goodwill and there not much to be gained by any more attempts at disrobing it. Now that it looks like the Modi tree is going bear much of the sweet electoral fruit, more is to be gained by possibly shaking its foundations and throwing stones at it. Of course this is not a new game. Scores of scoundrels have been running this secular racket for decades. This Lalu-Mulayam esque virulence in attacking the BJP and especially Modi may yield some "secular" sympathy, but it murders their claim of being a sincere representative of the righteous anger of the people against the political establishment. Except for the taint of graft or crime, they now look no different that the scores of claimants of the "secular" vote across the country. There is a definite - coldly calculated - benefit in the "minority" patronage, but it will certainly come at the cost of the middle class support. These perverse means will lead to no noble end.  

Movements like AAP are a necessity. Unless fear of a righteous popular retribution in the form of electoral defeats and loss of power is reinforced at regular intervals in the minds of established political parties, there is no functioning democracy. The AAP did that, but it is no longer different from any other "secular" disfigurements. It has become a small scale deja vu of the Janata Party. Alas history repeats itself and the circle always stops at a disappointing point.